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20121027
20121104
Search Results 0 to 17 of about 18 (some duplicates have been removed)
, obama is ahead in most polls of ohio he is ahead in most polls of iowa, wisconsin, and nevada as well and those four states. >> rose: by two or three points. >> two or three-point not an overwhelming margin but you can look historically and how often does a candidate who has a two or three-point lead in an election, does he how often does he convert that to a win and the answer is about 75 percent of the time. >> rose: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right because the states are what we call the tipping point states that would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> as you know basically saying a poll is a paragraph of a moment in time. >> right. >> rose: period. >> uh-huh. >> rose: no prophecy from that. >> my understanding, what you say is, yes, no prophecy, but you can look and reference it to ot
, when i think about the obama campaign, ohio says we know we're going to win it. when i speak to republicans they say absolutely we're going antoine it. there's a lot more enthusiasm for mitt romney than there's been before. who am i to believe? >> nobody. i think the one thing that is true about ohio is that it's atypical in the sense that the president is doing badly amongst white men and white working-class men in particular around the country. although romney has been eroding the slight advantage here in ohio with white working class men, what helps the president here is that bailout of the auto industry because that is helping him with his key demographics. so if it really in the end is about ohio and the 18 votes here, then it may be that something has distorted the race here and helped the president. but nobody yet really even dares to call it. the one thing that both sides are saying very clearly is that early voting is very important. a quarter of the state has already voted and half may have vote bid polling day itself. traditionally early voting is the democrats, bu
angry white males in ohio? >> this has been the real problem of the romney campaign, tot while obama's reach whites in general and white males in particular has been really less than mediocre, the fact is that in ohio, optimism and confidence of ohio has absolutely skyrocketed. quinnipiac showed this week that 52% of people in ohio think things getting better, only 17% think they're getting worse -- >> they are getting better in ohio. >> they are getting better in ohio, there is good news, and white males understand that the auto bailout is crucial and indispensable to this news. >> we will get to climate change next. >> for us to say that this was once in a generation and will not happen again, i think it would be shortsighted. climate change is a reality, extreme weather is a reality. >> new york governor andrew cuomo is also saying that 100- year storms are coming every two years. hate to bring his name off, but al gore predicted this. >> sure did. >> isn't this another demonstration of how antiquated our infrastructure is? they have the sea barriers and the netherlands. >> one do
. >> -- toledo. >> this was an act of not hail mary pass in ohio. this was an act of absolute desperation. obama is going to carry ohio, we got to do something -- don't do it, it is going to come back and bite us. it has. he is basically accusing the president of the united states with his bailout of plotting with gm and chrysler to send american jobs overseas to china. this is beyond a guide double parking outside in northridge on christmas -- >> if mark is correct and there was an internal fight in the campaign, and we think there had to be, because this is a hot pants on fire -- a pants on fire ad, the person who decides that in the end when there is that kind of a fight is the candidate. >> well -- >> no -- four years ago, mccain decided not to run ads on the jeremiah wright stuff. his decision. similarly, this had to be a romney decision. >> i was in china a couple of years ago and the thing that really struck me was the extent to which the u.s. car manufacturers had penetrated that market. >> but we want to build them here. >> we do build some of them here and some of them get finish over
. women in swing states in ohio is not soa which much -- so has obama. but really come ahead in ohio 5 pointsad ahead in ohio. >> and the electoral college which as of late this week, "the new york times" blog on the electoral college was showing obama at 290 and romney is 217. the crucial swing women voters in swing states, whose side are they going to come down on and why? game.s a ground i don't think the republican comments help the republican party in that way. at the same time, it's going to be about -- it's who do we trust? the ads i would like to see -- the grounds game the getting out the vote. >> that's right. whether this franken storm effects it -- i would like to see ads of doing dishes and taking care of my baby. that's what would win my vote. >> let's talk about what has moved some swing women. it was the first debate appearance from governor rick r. he was excellent. that evente gave a lot of swing voters permission to support romney someone who they now see as an alternative. >> that's right. no women's issues were raised in that first debate. when we saw in the second
to be trending towards romney. obama and romney have spent so much time in virginia and ohio that they will have to start paying taxes in both states. ohio? >> ohio remains beyond romney's grasp at this point in large part because obama is doing better there with white voters than he has across the country, and in the northeast of ohio, the auto bailout made a difference i. it is so much of a problem that rob portman, introducing romney in defiance, ohio in front of a huge crowd, said that "we have got to talk about this auto bailout tonight." they are still trying to explain. >> can romney win without ohio? >> yes, but it will be a tough one to reach. but it is still very close race. >> virginia? >> virginia will still probably end up in obama's camp. >> i look at the polls, and romney is up on average -- >> you can take your calls in virginia, because another poll shows obama is up in virginia. even with the heavy onslaught by romney, it still shows the northern virginia area still pretty much supports barack obama. >> new hampshire could be in play. >> new hampshire traditionally was a republ
electoral votes. including one scenario giving president obama a path to victory, winning nevada and ohio, to get to 277 electoral votes. for mitt romney the path could also lead through ohio, and blanketing the south, to get to 281 in a different scenario. and there are also several potentials for tie. this one shows the president losing nevada but winning ohio, to get to 269 for both candidates. and late today, the "newshour" got word that romney will make a last-minute stop in pennsylvania over the weekend. we explore the race and the states in play with jonathan martin of politico and margaret talev of bloomberg news. welcome to you both. so let me start with you, jonathan. the president's back on the trail today. what is the state of this race? how do two campaigns see it? >> both are projecting confidence because that's what you do when you're four days out from election day, judy. but looking at the maps and the polling it's clear that president obama still has a narrow advantage in terms of how you get to 270 electoral votes. two big developments to me have happened in the last 48
the presidency without winning. ohio will be the decisive state. if president obama wins florida, it moves the -- >> i could see florida being -- >> what i heard democrats talk about if they can hold ohio, hold wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, hold nevada, they could lose all other swing states, lose the congressional district in maine and come out with exactly 270 electoral votes. gwen: you add it up that way, john? >> that sounds very powerful. what i am struck by is there hasn't been any mystery about this. if you go further than a year ago, president obama's team was very straightforward. they expected it was going to be mitt romney. they were going to make him very unacceptable. the wealthy and out of touch background. they did that. they had a micro targeted micromessage strategy. they said what they were going to do. and stuck to that strategy seems to be with remarkable discipline. if it works, they look really, really smart. the difference between being really smart and really dumb -- [laughter] >> what's remarkable is that they broadcast that, right? >> and the romney campaign
relief supplies and president obama went to the headquarters of the red cross. >> ifill: in his second story about targeting voters online, harry veen veen goes to ohio where the campaigns have positions forming digital armies. >> sreenivasan: it's an endless feedback loop channeling data back to the campaigns for them to learn even more about it and refine their pitches further. it's the campaign strategy of the future. >> woodruff: and a battle ground dispatch from nevada. mitch fox of the las vegas pbs reports on a tight contest in a newly created congressional district. >> reporter: the complexities of this race read like a novel. money, aggressionive attacks. a famous family name. even a potential bankruptciy looming. it's all playing out in a district that covers half the state. >> woodruff: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> computing surrounds us. sometimes it's obvious and sometimes it's very surprising in where you find it. soon, computing intelligence in unexpected places will change our lives in truly profound
on this race, i'm joined by the bbc north america editor in florida where president obama was supposed to be campaigning today and bridgette in cleveland, ohio, the state where governor romney was supposed to be stomping today. let's start with you in florida. i'm incredibly jealous. pouring with rain here in washington, d.c. it must feel a world away, both weather-wise and politically. >> yes, it does. we woke up here this morning thinking the president wag going to launch his campaign. we knew this was going to be a big moment with bill clinton rolling out the big guns, if you like, and that was all canceled rather suddenly just as we woke up. so it was really strange knowing he was flying back to cope with a crisis while the rally went on and the normal things you hear at these rallies, the political campaign was going on. and the storm was mentioned by bill clinton but really not heavily. only in passing. and i think people are obviously talking about it to a certain extent. it's not in the front of their minds. what it does politically, conventional campaigning has ceased. it take
race. just a week out from election day cannot -- election day, president obama was at a red cross center today and he will assess the damage tomorrow. a rally in ohio for mitt romney turned into a storm relief drive. i am joined in astin -- austin, texas by matthew doud. i have been speaking to you from both campaigns today. no one wanted to play politics with this storm, but we are a week away from election day and they are both thinking about how this will affect them. >> the first thing it does is freeze the rates where it was before this storm happen. a slight advantage for mitt romney on the popular vote, and a slight advantage for the president to on the electoral college. you cannot really assess this until we get through this. and it will not be until this weekend where we see the impact of this. my inclination is that if the president can be president and not a candidate in the midst of this, he may see some small bump out of this. because the american public will see him acting as president, and that is always an advantage for an incumbent. >> and we have been seeing him
. >> brown: in turn, mr. obama accused his opponent of trying to scare voters over their economic futures. he pointed to a romney ad running in ohio that charges jeep is shipping jobs to china. >> you've got folks who work at the jeep plant who've been calling their employers worried, asking, "is it true? are our jobs being shipped to china?" and the reason they've been making these calls is that governor romney's been running an ad that says so. except it's not true. >> brown: chrysler has said it has no plans to move the jobs. the romney campaign insists it's standing by its claim. there promised to be much more battling over economic policy, with the race in a dead heat and going down to the wire. we look now at the jobs picture with two economists with ties to the presidential candidates: john taylor of stanford university and the hoover institution. he advises the romney campaign on economic issues. and austan goolsbee of the university of chicago's booth school of business. he served as president obama's chairman of the council of economic advisers until last year. to the extent mob set
lie, in ads on the obama administration's auto industry bailout. the ads assert general motors and chrysler are adding jobs in china at the expense of workers in ohio. both g.m. and chrysler have protested. but the romney campaign insists the facts in the ads are accurate. syrian government forces stepped up widespread air assaults on opposition strongholds today, anti-government activists said, after a holiday ceasefire fell apart. amateur video showed mig fighter jets strike near a mosque on the outskirts of damascus. warplanes also pounded the north, in towns including dair al zour. two days of bombing have left at least 185 people dead. meanwhile, u.s. secretary of state hillary clinton called for a shakeup of the syrian opposition in its bid to oust president assad. she said it should include people who've been fighting on the front lines, not just activists who've lived outside of syria for decades. in china, a government think tank urged leadership to end the country's one-child policy. it recommends each family be allowed to have two children by 2015, and by 2020 all li
's going on now in ohio and north carolina and virginia? but a second thing is the larger atmospherics. what is the effect of having president obama go off the campaign trail back to the white house? the white house just this afternoon released a photo of him meeting in the situation room to get an update on storm damage. it seems to me that has an impact on a race where governor romney has been making some progress in recent days. does this kind of freeze things for where they are now. >> woodruff: that's what i wanted to ask you, susan. does one candidate or another pick up an automatic advantage in a situation like this? >> i don't think there's an automatic advantage until we know what happens with this terrible storm. but if the federal government seems to be responding in an effective way, i think that's to president obama's benefit. not only does its make his administration look competent but it makes the case for a government role, the role of government has been one of the fundamental debates between these two candidates. if the federal response does not look so competent we'v
can't break through in ohio. then there is another argument that says advertisements don't stick with you very long is so all that money that was spent over the summer by the obama campaign didn't stick. and so now the money that is being spent in these last minutes by the romney campaign will stick because, they're reaching low information, undecided voters who are just now tune approximating in. they don't watch the news a lot. they get their messages now as they start to think here comes the election. they see an ad, that forms their opinions. off they go to the polls. >> rose: looking at your analysis, what do you worry about that you might have missed or might be wrong, you and others. >> two big things we could have missed. one, is the is is that romney has more than we think he does. that there is a group not getting caught in the polls that he's got support that is not showing up in all of these polls. >> rose: a silent majority. >> a silent majority. that is just a worry because you don't know. we trust in polls and the polls have shown a certain thing. you always think
Search Results 0 to 17 of about 18 (some duplicates have been removed)

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